Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: The models hit on two of the three big positive regression candidates yesterday. Corey Kluber gave up two runs, but it came on just four hits while striking out eight over six IP. Likewise, Stripling went 6.1 innings with just one hit allowed and seven strikeouts.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting off we have Andrew Heaney at the top of the True AVG list. With strong strikeout rates and mostly normalized baselines in the recent sample, Heaney has a lot of upside. Granted, he has been lucky in terms of home runs, but that's about it. What's more is his matchup against the Brewers is one of the best in the league for a LHP. They have just a 66 wRC+ and a 29% strikeout rate in this split. Overall Heaney has the foundation of a strong play in all DFS formats and is a good bet to go over on his props.
Next up is a familiar pitcher at the bottom of the models: Josh Winckowski. As noted many times before, Winckowski is just a bad pitcher overall. His strikeout and walk rates are both bad and his xFIP justifies the notion. In general he has been lucky to avoid being blown up lately as well. He is up against the lowly Pirates, who have just a 68 wRC+ against RHP in the recent sample, but we have seen them have upside at times. In conclusion it's likely best to avoid this spot all together but if you choose a side it should be the Pirates.
Significant deviations to consider
- For the second start in a row we have JT Brubaker with a large positive deviation to consider. He's currently got a 3.20 xFIP and 6.52 ERA in the recent sample along with a wild .459 BABIP. The home run rates are too high as well, so we know there are better day ahead. He's facing the Red Sox, who are a league average team at best right now and only have a few LHH to give Brubaker big issues. In sum, you'll want to take some shots on Brubaker in GPPs and take the over on his strikeout props.
- Finishing this up we have two pitchers with large negative deviations: Jacob deGrom and Zac Gallen. Granted, deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and even with a negative deviation of 100+ points he still has the second lowest True AVG on the slate. However, that deviation paired with a rough matchup against the Braves and their 116 wRC+ to RHP is a tad worrisome. Meanwhile, Gallen is not the best pitcher in baseball and hasn't give up a home run in a month while having a BABIP far too low. On the other hand, he gets a much nicer matchup against the Giants. Overall deGrom is a tad scary but isn't a fade because he's a god and Gallen is likely a nice avoid if he ends up popular.