Paydirt NFL DFS Week 14 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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Main Points:

• The highest total game is DET/MIN, but the ownership is likely to fall on DET who has significantly less upside than the Vikings.
• Joe Mixon looks like terrific chalk, while Derrick Henry is only a popular option because of narratives and worthy of a fade.
• If you need to save some salary, the Titans look like a fantastic salary saving option with upside that allows you to leverage the field as well.

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

• The highest team total on the slate goes to MIN/DET at 52 (as of time of writing). The spread is close, with the Lions being a surprising favorite. Minnesota has the highest adjusted pass rate on the slate at 65% while DET lags behind at 54%. In fact, DET has both a lot adjusted pass rate as well as a low pass rate in the redzone, which is a large detriment to the upside of pass catchers. While Amon-Ra St.Brown is a baller, his ownership will be extremely expensive. The better plays will likely be D’Andre swift or Jamaal Williams with DET being so run heavy when it counts. As for MIN, Kirk/Jefferson/Hockenson with a D’andre Swift runback is a great way to build. Overall, strong game environement with some interesting leverage mechanics.
• Lowest team total here is split between SF/TB and PIT/BAL. Both games feature backups QBs and a lot of running back touches. Neither game features much upside at all outside of a couple choice options. Christian McCaffrey is a good spend up, but you can’t trust the 49ers passing game with Purdy at QB. Pat Freiermuth continues to be a strong option at TE in the midrange. Outside of those two players, you won’t want to spend too much time in these ones.
• The largest spread goes to DAL over HOU as 16.5 point favorites. HOU is down their top two pass catchers and DAL is fully healthy. However, this is a Mike McCarthy lead team, and it’s a good bet that they don’t cover. Interestingly, Dak Prescott and Cowboys stacks are not popular even though they have the highest implied team total on the slate. It seems like a strong spot to stack Dak/CeeDee/Gallup and hope all the scoring comes through the air against an atrocious Texans squad.

Highest projected ownership

• Joe Mixon currently profiles as the highest owned player on the slate, and for good reason. We have seen 50+ fantasy point upside (literally) from him this season when the Bengals are rolling. His workload is among the best in the league, handling 75%+ of the rushing attempts and the vast majority of the goalwork along with a couple targets per game. All of this at just $6,900, a very nice price, means he is around $$1,200 too cheap. Considering CIN is implied for the second most rushing TDs on the slate at 1.93, he is a no-brainer play.
• Amon-Ra St.Brown has 25+ fantasy points in three games straight and is the feature player in the highest total game on the slate. Granted, we talked about DET being more run heavy in the redzone, which can curtail the upside of WRs. The volume is unquestionable, but if ASB doesn’t score a TD he is likely not going to win you a GPP. He’s a lock in cash game formats but likely someone worth avoiding in large field GPPs.
• Derrick Henry has been trash lately. Over the last four weeks he has not broken 90 rushing yards and has eclipsed 12 fantasy points just once. Nothing has materially changed to make us believe that the Titans are improved in this spot outside of the narrative that Henry always runs all over the Jags. All of this and you don’t get a price discount either. If you have the salary to afford him, the ceiling is always there, but his median expectations are not deserving of this ownership.
• The final note here is going to be on Jared Goff as by far the highest owned QB on the slate, which seems preposterous. Goff is averaging 251 yards passing this year and has thrown for 240 or less in seven games. The Lions are extremely run heavy in the redzone which limits his upside. The only thing Goff has going for him is a defensive boost against the Vikings which we know can be a mirage. His median expectations are okay for the price, but the downside here is tremendous. Typically, you should fade boom or bust players at high ownership and that’s exactly what we have here.

Top five value stacks

• After talking through Derrick Henry as bad chalk earlier, the Titans make for a terrific leverage play. The stack of Tannehill/Woods/Ikhine is exceptionally cheap and projects towards the middle of the pack. The Titans profile as a run heavy team, but are actually much more pass heavy in the redzone. This is shown by their passing TD expectation of 1.57 while their rushing expectation is just .95. Likewise, this stack has an easy gamestack partner with Christian Kirk, so you can play for a shootout. Overall, the Titans make a great leverage stack in GPPs.
• Cleveland stacks are easy mode this week. The Bengals have been on fire and forcing opponents to play catch up for a month. Watson looked like the trash he is last week but may have just needed to knock off the rust. Amari Cooper and David Njoku make a natural stack combo, especially since Njoku takes up the TE spot. Bring it back with either Chase or Higgins and it makes for a high upside and affordable option. Not to mention, this game has the second highest over under on the slate at 47! Cleveland also has a respectable passing TD expectation of 1.83, the second highest on the slate.
• Denver…. Sucks.
• Jacksonville is on the other side of the TEN stack, and speaks just as much to the upside of both. This game has sneaky upside on two teams with quality pass catchers offering leverage on a chalk RB. While the Titans side is more affordable, the Jags offer more stability and a more predictable passing tree with Lawrence/Kirk/Zay as a natural combination. You would want to bring it back with either Woods or Okwonkwo from the Titans, depending on price and roster construction.
• Finally, if you really think that DAL is going to be leading by multiple touchdowns, you have to assume the Texans will be passing to catch up. Moreover, this stack is free. It costs just $11,400 on draftkings to stack Mills/Moore/Dorsett and allows you to roster almost any other players you want on the slate. This is a play likely reserved for only the largest field GPPS, but the leverage and relative value are unmatched.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Jared Goff
RB – Joe Mixon
RB – Travis Homer
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – DJ Moore
TE – Greg Dulcich
DST – Cowboys DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen
RB – Travis Homer, Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, Joe Mixon
WR – Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Corey Davis, DJ Chark
TE – David Njoku, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce
DST – Whoever you want

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