NFL DFS: Paydirt Stacks and Stats Breakdown
Welcome to the stacks breakdown here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the best and worst stacks to focus on for your NFL DFS lineups. We will talk about the sportsbook and vegas information as well as the key pieces of information for the teams in good and bad spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and LevX format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
- Ravens offense is in a terrific spot, has a high over/under, and is riding the back of Lamar Jackson who is one game from history.
- While the Raiders usage has been great, but the results have been lackluster. They are in position to get back on track this week.
- The Eagles have a condensed offense and massive upside, but can they produce against a good defense?
- There's been a lot of talk about the Seahawks this week, but it may be necessary to keep expectations in check.
NFL Implied totals and slate outlook
The highest over/under this week goes to the BUF/BAL game at 51. It's likely going to be a trend this year of games involving BUF having the highest total. Likewise, BAL has been lighting the world on fire and Lamar is making them pay for holding off on his new contract. Considering how strong both of these teams are, this game should be a priority.
The lowest total on the slate goes to the NYG/CHI game. Once again, we are going to see a trend surrounding CHI on the lowest total unless something drastic happens. Neither of these teams can score effectively and NYG is a trainwreck of injuries. Interestingly, there will be heavy chalk in this game.
This slate offers a lot of upside on teams that people have written off. It also has some very interesting (bad) chalk that can easily be leveraged in large field GPPs. Make sure you watch the full slate breakdown on Sunday for more insight on spots not mentioned here.
NFL DFS Stacks to prioritize
It's important to figure out the best spots to stack each weak, as correlation plays a large part in the upside of your lineups for NFL DFS. Here are the stacks that project the best in the models here at Paydirt:
Some of the tables used for the stats in this article:
- Aggressive Throw Index: https://paydirtdfs.com/nfl-aggressive-throw-index-league-wide/
- League adjusted pass and rush rates: https://paydirtdfs.com/nfl-pass-and-rush-splits-league-wide/
- League adjusted redzone pass and rush rates: https://paydirtdfs.com/nfl-redzone-pass-and-rush-splits-league-wide/
- NFL Receiver research sheets: https://paydirtdfs.com/nfl-fantasy-receiving-research-sheets/
Baltimore Ravens: Undervalued upside
Stack – Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews/Rashod Bateman
Cost – $21,000/$23,800
Projection – 58.22/46.82
As noted above, this game with BUF/BAL needs to be a priority. While the models like both sides, the BAL side looks to be the one undervalued. Likewise, it is cheaper to stack on Draftkings and has a significantly higher LevX score at 11.73%. Granted, it is easier to skinny stack the Ravens (Lamar with just one pass catcher) but there are spots to do a double stack. Because of the high total and quality opponent, this could be it.
- Baltimore continues to be very aggressive, with an aggressive throw index of 6.47% above league average. You can see that table here.
- Mark Andrews is sixth in the league in average fantasy points per game among all WR/TE and has an insane 38%/42% split of targets/air yards.
- Lamar Jackson has 100+ rushing yards in two straight games and could make history as the only QB ever with three 100+ yard rushing games in a row.
Initial ownership projections have this stack lower owned than those of the other top tier QBs. Because of that, as well as the raw upside, you’ll want to make sure you have exposure in GPPs.
Los Vegas Raiders: Unlucky and pass heavy
Stack – Derek Carr/Davante Adams/Darren Waller
Cost – $19,700/$21,600
Projection – 56.32/46.93
It’s understandable to be reticent of the Raiders after a weak start, but the baselines are there for them to find their ceilings. They continue to be one of the pass heaviest teams in the league and have a notably condensed target tree. It’s also worth saying that the Raiders are tied for the highest passing touchdowns on the slate at 1.96. Finally, if you feel like using Mack Hollins instead of Darren Waller, there’s nothing wrong with that. Overall they check all the boxes of a stack we need to consider.
- Davante Adams has the highest average redzone targets in the league at 3.33 per game as well as averaging 11.33 targets per game overall.
- The Raiders have the 3rd highest adjusted pass rate in the league at 69% as well as the fifth highest redzone pass rate at 73.17%.
- With no Hunter Renfrow in week 3, Mack Hollins had 158 yards on 10 yards after having eight targets in week two, giving him a strong expectation in this offense.
Overall, the Raiders are tough to stomach, but represent the upside we want in GPPs. They pass a lot, should be in a competitive game, and have easy to read target distributions. While the field is low on them you’ll want to take advantage.
Philadelphia Eagles: Expensive upside
Stack – Jalen Hurts/AJ Brown/DeVonta Smith
Cost – $21,400/$23,800
Projection – 56.22/46.75
Continuing the trend of upside here, we have to mention the Eagles and their torrid offense. They have the second highest team total at 26.75 and a predictable set of players to assign it to. AJ Brown is the biggest target here, as he has a 48%/33% split of the teams air yards and targets, but Devonta Smith is sitting at 30%/24% as well. And let's not forget about Jalen Hurts, who has the most rushing attempts of any QB while sitting at 32 pass attempts per game. As is usual with rushing QBs, it’s typically better to skinny stack here and use one of AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith, but both can be used in large field tournaments.
- Even though PHI has only passed at a 50% clip, their adjusted rate is at 66%, showing that they are willing to be pass forward.
- The target tree here is very skinny, with AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert making up 70%+ of the targets and 85% of the air yards.
- JAX seemingly has a strong defense, but has faced Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan with no receivers, and a broken Justin Herbert.
While this stack is certainly expensive, the baselines are worth paying for. Likewise, we have a lot of value available on this slate to make things work without much sacrifice. Look to build around PHI is parts of your portfolio this week.
NFL DFS stacks to avoid
While it's important to find the best stacks to use, it's equally as vital to figure out the best stacks to avoid. Here are the stacks with the largest negative LevX (leverage score) based on current ownership projections:
Seattle Seahawks: It's Geno Smith, dude
Look, I understand that spreadsheets and models like Geno Smith this week. However, it's important to remember that this is still, in fact, Geno Smith. There's a certain level of common sense you need to use when making choices in DFS and this seems like an easy one. Granted, both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett look like fine overall secondary correlations. They project for around 18 fantasy points each on Draftkings and are priced well. Utilizing them in lineups with other full stacks makes a lot of sense in terms of projection and indirect leverage. However, utilizing a stack of Geno Smith/DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett is not necessary. Never go full Geno.